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Thu, Sep 8, 2011 at 6:52:24 AM | vector25

#31

koolair


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Quoting vector25 from 2011-09-04 21:50:24

"

Quoting koolair from 2011-09-04 12:00:59

 "I believe the better construction opportunities lie in

the field of small family farm layouts including house, ..."

 

you mean like the aging digital entrepreneurs might build a house someday?

that's what i'm waiting for..

 

Not sure what you mean...

 

Check out "Creature From Jekyll Island", by G. Edward Griffin. It's free on youtube.

Awesome documentary - explains things very clearly.


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Thu, Sep 8, 2011 at 7:24:39 AM | historic construction slow-down

#32

vector25



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koolair- you said building houses is the next opportunity.. i agree.. and it's all those people with money who have been involved in the digital and technology stuff.. and they are all getting older.. think about this and i bet you'll know exactly what i'm talking about..


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Thu, Sep 8, 2011 at 7:50:36 AM | historic construction slow-down

#33

vector25



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"the federal reserve system needs to be abolished"

"it's an instrument of totalitarianism"

Jekyll Island 1910- big secret..

okay..

 


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Thu, Sep 8, 2011 at 3:28:37 PM | historic construction slow-down

#34

rod23


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Koolair's posts are right on point.  The reason you are seeing a slowdown in the construction industry has EVERYTHING to do with the devaluation of the dollar.  Over the past 10 years the dollar has lost over 50% of it's purchasing value.  Look at the dollar index, and the price of gold.  The price of gold skyrocketing is not because gold is going up in value, it is because the dollar in going DOWN in value, which, as Koolair posted, is because of the Federal Reserve printing money.  The supply goes up, so the demand goes down. 

 

I've even had a client come into our office saying, "I feel like 100 dollars is the new 20 dollars", which, if you look at the dollar index, is very close to accurate. 


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Fri, Sep 9, 2011 at 3:48:06 AM | rod23

#35

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Quoting rod23 from 2011-09-08 10:28:37

"has EVERYTHING to do with the devaluation of the dollar"

 

shooting holes in that theory is like shooting ducks in a barrel.. look at all the dollar devaluation periods in the US for the last 75 years on a chart and compare that to authorized building permits in the US for the last 75 years.. people have to have space like they have to have food.. space has not been expanding for the last 4 years for the first time ever- but the population continues to.. this is all more to do with adding 2+2 than it is about theorizing.. people have to have space even if it means mud huts.. expect autodesk to release a "revit sod house" version soon- MEP not needed..

 

 

 

 


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Mon, Sep 12, 2011 at 3:37:50 PM | historic construction slow-down

#36

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It's not really theorizing when a client walks out of the door because they can't AFFORD to get a permit saying, "I feel like 100 dollars is the new 20 dollars".  I know critisizing the dollar is like critisizing Jesus.  Also consider the real estate scam orchestarated by wall street recently:  credit default swaps and morgage backed securities. 


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Mon, Sep 12, 2011 at 7:32:20 PM | historic construction slow-down

#37

vector25



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rod- well maybe you're right about people not being able to afford things these days.. actually residential permits bottomed out two years ago and new home construction is heading back to normal- and it's coming from the tech boom people..


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Tue, Sep 13, 2011 at 12:32:27 AM | historic construction slow-down

#38

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the mystery is really with commercial construction coming to a halt.. SUPPOSE because of the digital era- the way all commercial buildings have been used is changing? maybe not only the way buildings will be constructed- BIM- but also the way buildings will be used is changing?  is it some kind of transition? 


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Tue, Sep 13, 2011 at 5:58:45 AM | vector25

#39

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Quoting vector25 from 2011-09-04 13:42:31

"

koolair- okay but you are leaving out the forest in all those economic trees you mention.. the USA has been though all kinds of extreme economic situations in the last 75 years and NEVER have new building permits been down like they've been down for the last three or so years- not even close.. THIS is a horse of a different color..

"

Hi Vector - Rod thanks for the kudos.

 

I am very happy that I found this discussion as it has allowed me to lay out some

things that have been floating around in my head, sometimes only loosely connected.

 

The building permits are down because there is a hidden supply.  In my earlier

posts, I mentioned that the big 6 commercial banks have tons of forclosed properties

on their books, and this is where all the TARP bailout money went, to cover for these

operating losses.  Now, despite those bailouts, if the banks put those forclosed

houses on the market, the prices for homes would plummet over night due to

over-supply.  I believe the system is simply playing hot potato, everyone changing

hands with a very low rate of new construction, except to deal with real population

changes.  You can't just assume that as long as there are buyers, there must be

residents.  Many home purchases are done by "investors".  I've worked on condos

where it goes to construction because 65% of the lots were sold, but most of these were

multiple purchases by design and construction team members, hoping that after the

place gets built, they can flip it or rent it out.  75 years of problems, but we've never

been up the hockey stick chart of $20,000 gold.  Whatever.  It doesn't matter how high

it goes, I believe in practice, no matter how high it goes, gold in USD will be mean-

ingless after a certain point because in a hyperinflationary scenario, all you care about

is eating, sleeping, bathing, and taking a crap in peace.

 

Now, having said all that.......it would be great to figure out how to model a single family

dwelling complete with landscape and terrain.  I'm an MEP guy and do not have much

ability in architecture, but truthfully, I'm not interested in laying out complex and

ornate things.  Just a simple "roof over my head".  But I'd also like to place that home

in a realistic terrain.  Got any video lessons?  Wall families?  Hope some of you guys can

help!  I've got some ideas concening gravity fed pressurized domestic cold water, heated

by fire.  Apparently all you need is a spring fed cistern with 40-60 feet of head pressure

(run-off from a hill or mountain) and you get some good flow.

 

I'm trying to get off the grid, and believe my revit ability could possibly help me model

and construct my own place.  Vector, if the SH does not hit the fan, there would probably

be a huge market for digitized and automated log cabin retreats for retired professionals.

Actually, anyone with a retreat location could become your customer for retro-fit applications.

 

Peace,

 

Joe


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Tue, Sep 13, 2011 at 6:13:52 AM | vector25

#40

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Quoting vector25 from 2011-09-12 19:32:27

"

the mystery is really with commercial construction coming to a halt.. SUPPOSE because of the digital era- the way all commercial buildings have been used is changing? maybe not only the way buildings will be constructed- BIM- but also the way buildings will be used is changing?  is it some kind of transition? 

"

I've been talking about this with people I deal with.  I've been maintaining

that commercial real estate is the other shoe to drop.  I don't know how it is

in your day-to-day experience, but a lot of work I'm seeing is tenant fit-ups

and "back to base building" renovations.  Which together is indicative of a

lot of businesses simply moving locations.  Actually I've been just involved

with a "back to base building" renovation for a big financial type of firm who

moved out of 7 floors of office space in a 50 story office tower.  7 times $30

grand and wheee it's phat city!  Until the dust settles, and then it'll be, "now

what do we do".  I certainly hope it doesn't come to this, but between Bernanke

and his Keynesian "broken windows stimulate growth" economic conspiracy

theories working hand in hand with little Timmy Geithner at the Treasury

and the rest of his buddies at Goldman Sucks, I do not have much hope in

the "solutions" coming out of the Washington White Shoe Boys at Club

Circle Jerk.

 

Peace,

 

Joe


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Tue, Sep 13, 2011 at 11:15:13 PM | historic construction slow-down

#41

vector25



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i wonder where so many people get the notion that gold is worth a lot right now? it's not..


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Wed, Sep 14, 2011 at 12:16:49 AM | historic construction slow-down

#42

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How much do you think it's worth?


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Wed, Sep 14, 2011 at 3:42:53 AM | historic construction slow-down

#43

vector25



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well its price goes up and down.. just like all other commodities in a free market.. right now its "price" is up a little.. good time to sell if you are playing the fools game.. then buy when it's down again.. nothing new.. real estate does the same thing.. it's not possible to win that buy and sell game infinitely.. and when the price of something crashes- (as it always does)- then the socialists move in and say- "see we told you- free markets sucks"..

the real value of any commodity is in the middle of its high and low prices.. i certainly wouldn't pay more than $500 an ounce for gold at any time..



Edited on: Wed, Sep 14, 2011 at 7:00:44 PM

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Thu, Sep 15, 2011 at 9:46:52 PM | historic construction slow-down

#44

koolair


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I try not to put a dollar figure on gold.  Gold is a strange thing.  It's the only

thing that's historically proven to be money, and it's the most demonized

commodity in the modern world of finance.

 

But I will say this, in this century of fiat fantasies conjured up by emporors

with no clothes, the ratio between the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Gold

has hit 1:1 on two occasions and the economic conditions during both times

were nearly the same as we have today.  In 2000, the DOW:GOLD ratio hit

its peak of 41.  That is, it took 41 ounces of gold to buy one "share" of the

DOW.  Today it is bouncing around 5.5 to 6.5.  Today the DOW is cheap

compared to gold, but I believe it will get cheaper, regardless of the DOW's

dollar value.

 

So if the DOW goes to 5,200, which my updated fibonacci calculations show it

is (last year it was 3,600), then gold will end up at 5,200.  If it rallies to

20,000 due to hyperinflation (which my gut says will happen), gold will rise to

20,000. 

 

The silver to gold ratio (or in common parlance, gold to silver ratio) has a

historical monetary ratio of 1:16.  That is, one ounce of gold is worth 16

ounces of silver.  I've heard that the geological ratio is 1:17, but Seeking

Alpha notes 1:10.  If you stick with my conservative assertion that for every

ounce of gold in the earth's crust, there are 17 ounces of silver, then naturally,

at $1,800 gold, silver's worth $106.  And with $5,200 gold, silver's worth $306.

What's silver trading at today?  $40 give or take.  So as of today, silver is

worth over 100% more.  If gold nearly triples in price up to $5,200, silver will

jump 665% ! ! !

 

Now will the silver to gold ratio hit 1:17?  Historically, silver has never been

used as an industrial metal, but rather as money or kitchenwares or jewelery.

However, during the past 100 years, we've used silver as an industrial metal

and it's thrown the of volatility in this ratio.  Despite this anomaly, the ratio

has hit 1:17 during those periods of time when the Dow to Gold ratio hit 1:1!

Talk about confluence.

 

I believe the silver to gold ratio will hit 1:17, but many people say it will go

to 1:1 due to the present rarity of silver because it's all been consumed by

electronics.

 

I just did a look up and found Seeking Alpha:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/122086-dow-gold-ratio-of-1-1-or-2-1-in-coming-years

These guys are a pretty good source.  I learned from George Gordon.  Looks

like more and more people are beginning to see these ratios.

 

How about oil?  Oil is THE WILD CARD!  It is wholely dependent on the middle east

and the false "peak oil" theory.  There is a geopolitically manufactured shortage of

oil, not a real organic geological shortage.  Geologically there is plenty of oil, more

than you can imagine!  I have heard Lindsay Williams announce that the elite plan

on taking oil to $200 per barrel!  My prior prediction of $3,600 gold would make the

gold to oil ratio 18, but I predicted that ratio to reach 20.  I've been predicting gold

to oil at 1:20 for a year and it's finally happened all of a sudden last month.  These

things take time to develop, but once it gets going, it happens fast!  Today it looks

to be headed to 1:25 or more.  By the way, everyone around me either hates me or

they're still laughing, especially the "financially literate".  I think they secretly hate

me though because they all failed to steer me into RRSPs and on top of that I was

right about the economy afterall.  But you know, I never claimed to figure everything

out all by myself.  I told them all this info three years ago!!!!  I told them two years

ago!!  I told them again last year and now everything I've said is happening. And my

family is still laughing.  My friends are still laughing (except one - he's very grateful).

All I say to people is listen to Alex Jones and George Gordon.  These two guys alone

connect you to all sorts of other global researchers and you will be able to discern

the signs of the times, many times on your own.

 

Hey, now that I've given out so much of my research, how about you help me

figure out how to mold terrain in Revit?  Place various different trees.  Model

ponds and creeks.  Got any good links?  I want to work on building homes in

the woods complete with stairs, roofs, everything you'd expect to get in the city,

but in the woods.  Care to help?  What I'm trying to do is model what is already

at a prospective building site and then model the home and other buildings

from there.  I envision being able to compile a list of suppliers and prices for

materials and phase out the whole project from bottom up.  I believe I can

turn-key the whole process and am looking forward to working with like-minded

designers. 


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Thu, Sep 15, 2011 at 10:52:52 PM | koolair

#45

vector25



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Quoting koolair from 2011-09-15 16:46:52

 

"now that I've given out so much of my research"

 

you mean your tea leaf readings..

 

as for trees and landscaping- i'll position the model on the site- or how ever they would want it positioned- but i let the artists paint in the trees and landscaping.. my top priority in the first place is creating geometry that sells the house- and i also have to put colors and materials on the model.. then if i get an agreement to go ahead with construction design- create construction documents and make the model comply with the international residential code including local building requirments- then i can get paid.. but you might wanna talk to willi about landscaping- willi is the best in that area..


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