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Fri, Aug 12, 2011 at 3:16:27 PM | historic construction slow-down

#16

rod23


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 I believe my comments are right on target and in no way are muddying the waters. A common reaction to this historical information and its parrallels to moden times is denial. I will also add that I am a licenced building contactor and a full time Revit user in an architecture firm.  I am not trying to push some internet conspiracy theory here, I am giving you my honest opinion based on decades of time spent in libraries and bookstores.  I could go on at length of the similarities of Rome at its collapse and modern USA.  I just really don't think it has anything to do with BIM, or Revit vs. CAD. 


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Fri, Aug 12, 2011 at 4:08:42 PM | historic construction slow-down

#17

vector25



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rod- i don't see how you could have thought i was talking about you muddying the waters.. i said "they come in and muddy up the thread".. they is not you.. if you read this thread you'll see what i am talking about.. your comment was fine and i thanked you for it.. and if you don't think rome is related to revit then that's good too.. the topic is about the construction slow-down.. BIM is now the primary means for construction- and revit is the primary BIM tool.. when there is no construction- there is nothing for revit to do.. except maybe make art to show your friends- or post to the revit city gallery..


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Fri, Aug 12, 2011 at 5:04:40 PM | historic construction slow-down

#18

rod23


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OK, back on target then:  Keep your skills sharpened even during this slowdown, I am now rendering out a 'pretty picure' for a proposal on a waterfront project.  Even without going to CD's  just getting an artistic pretty picture might land you the job.  Most folks will not invest their personal time to learn the ever evolving tricks of Revit.  A great tip is to learn the Google Earth plugin.  You can upload your model into GE and record flyby's and orbit the model, then email the KMZ file to the client, which they can open in Google Earth.  They can see the model and animations without the need for addition software.  Here's a sample of something I just did this morning in about 2 hours.  Double click on "rotation" and loop it to get a cool orbit animation.


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Fri, Aug 12, 2011 at 5:07:52 PM | historic construction slow-down

#19

rod23


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did this file attach???


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Fri, Aug 12, 2011 at 10:47:38 PM | historic construction slow-down

#20

vector25



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no your image didn't post but i sure would like to see it.. i know it's a waste of time trying to tell the revit city administrators that they need to wipe all the server drives clean and reinstall the forum software and then bring back in all the backed up data.. but they don't get it.. so nothing works very well year after year- they just don't understand it.. they THOUGHT they knew how to hack somebody's internet connection to the site- but they don't understand that either.. i know they love me even though they hate me too..

i agree with you that a good rendering of some good looking and smart geometry is top priority with BIM.. and as you can see most of the revit users have finally mastered that part.. now we all just need to master getting the model documented so construction activity can come back and the construction workers can work again.. don't forget- construction of buildings is not just something that comes and goes- people have to have space just like they have to have food.. and when the population grows- there must to be construction..


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Sat, Aug 13, 2011 at 3:30:20 AM | historic construction slow-down

#21

vector25



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off topic again- but i will say one good thing about the revit city site- its hosting has always be fast.. everywhere you go at the revit city site it's fast fast fast.. i'll take the problems just to have that speed- that's what i like.. plus it's the best forum software on the internet.. also revit city is the only revit forum that hasn't stumbled all over itself several times changing its image and software.. it's the original and in my opinion the only real revit forum.. also we have coreed who is famous in the AEC community.. and actually EVERYONE at revit city is famous in the BIM revolution..


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Tue, Aug 23, 2011 at 4:21:45 PM | historic construction slow-down

#22

koolair


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If you want to understand where the economy

is headed, look to Japan from 1990 to present.

Low interest rates coupled with a bad economy

spells economic stagflation.  Bank of Japan (BOJ)

kept their rates low and thus enticed massive

borrowing of the Yen and investing those borrowed

Yen in other FX markets.  This is called the carry

trade.  Borrow for cheap and invest where interest

rates are high.  Makes sense.  Either the USD/JPY

or the GBP/JPY made you rich.  It's only recently

this knowledge came out in the mainstream

but I profitted off of it in the past particularly in

the GBP/JPY where the interest rate differential

was over 12%.  It was phat city.

 

But what it does to the economy of the lower

interest rate bearing currency is absolutely

devastating.  All this cheap borrowing leads to

a lowering in purchasing power of that currency,

hence prices go up and production ramps up

as industry chases the rising prices.  In Japan

however, they are a net importer, so this phe-

nomenon was not seen, but rather the opposite.

Prices rose as purchasing power declined, and

people wound up working longer and longer

hours in order to keep up with higher COSTS of

living instead of prices of products sold.  Hence

the modern notion that the Japanese are hard-

working...no, they'd rather kick back at home

with their real families instead of the rent-a-family

they see from time to time.

 

In the USA, the same deal is playing out.  We have

record low interest rates on Federal Reserve Notes

(colloquially known as US dollars), relatively high

rates in the Aussie dollar....gee, what do you think

traders are gonna do?

 

Plus, just like in Japan, America is a net importer,

will never pay back its debt, and its industry has been

offshored to China, Phillipines, Vietnam, and India.

So as a net consumer with a rapidly deteriorating

purchasing power, look to the past two decades in

Japan for a clue as to what might happen here.

America used to be the world's largest creditor nation.

 

America is now the world's greatest debtor nation and

it's not because the people are stupid or lazy (although

many are), it's primarily because of the dubious

activities of the Rothschilds, Warburgs, and the

international banking families who own the private

Federal Reserve, which is no more federal than

Federal Express.  It's a private corporation that is

feeding off of the blood, sweat, and tears of largely

an ignorant mass of people who have been

deliberately dumbed downed through the Rockefeller

owned public educational system.

 

Check out Alex Jones, or Max Keiser, or George Gordon,

or Ron Paul to listen to concise, up-to-date, and pertinent

information on current events, history, and the shadowy

elite who run things from "behind the curtain".  And if

you're wondering if this is all conspiracy theory, please

note, the men I just listed only talk about conspiracy facts.

That is, conspiracies which have been proven by scientists,

reporters, and whistle blowers who are also covered by your

mainstream news.  The truth is hidden in plain sight and

these guys are simply connecting them.  Once you see

what they're talking about, the truth behind the con-

struction industry will be a matter of common sense.

I have dodged many bullets after having listened to these

guys for many years now.  Hope you can do the same!

 

Joe


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Wed, Aug 24, 2011 at 9:33:28 AM | koolair

#23

vector25



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Quoting koolair from 2011-08-23 11:21:45

"industry has been offshored to China"

 

 

yeah and the ONLY market for their goods is offshored to the USA.. so that doesn't put them in any better position..


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Fri, Aug 26, 2011 at 6:26:48 PM | vector25

#24

koolair


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Quoting vector25 from 2011-08-24 04:33:28

"

yeah and the ONLY market for their goods is offshored to the USA.. so that doesn't put them in any better position..

"

 

That's right!  This is a world wide economic shutdown.  If demand from USA

goes down, China's output also goes down. 

 

Having said that, you will notice there are movements in Chinese media

that promote more consumer spending and a new "buy silver" meme.

China, being part of the international community and the IMF is only allowed

to buy a limited amout of gold and silver every year.  Which is why I think

their media is promoting citizen purchases, so that they can legally exceed

their limited alotment.  Why is the USA and Canada still making fun of gold

and silver?  It's still being touted as a "barbarous relic".  LOL.

 

Still would rather live in North America...we still have the freer laws and the

police can (sometimes) be reasoned with.

 

Joe


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Fri, Aug 26, 2011 at 6:29:28 PM | historic construction slow-down

#25

koolair


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PS - Speaking of worldwide economic shutdown, you should check out

an economic metric called the "Baltic Dry Index"  I have it on my book-

mark tabs for quick viewing.

 

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=$bdi,PLTADANRBO[PA][D][F1!3!!!2!20]&pref=G

 

Look how far this metric has fallen since the crash of 2008.  This metric

is a measure of shipping prices worldwide.  A rising BDI indicates a flurry

of shipping activity.  A falling BDI reflects a slow down in shipping (laws

of supply and demand).


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Fri, Aug 26, 2011 at 6:30:50 PM | historic construction slow-down

#26

koolair


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Sorry this is a longer term view showing June 08 to now:

 

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=$BDI,PLTADANRBO[PA][D][F1!6!!!2!20]&pref=G


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Mon, Aug 29, 2011 at 12:12:47 AM | historic construction slow-down

#27

vector25



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koolair- i'm not going to pretend i have as much knowledge of economics as you do because i probably don't.. but the thing i'm wondering about here is construction.. revit is not just a toy or something for us to show each other here at revit city what we have made with revit- it is for construction.. and i have seen the monthly building permits authorized in the united states for the last 60 years and it's pretty amazing to see that it's never been down like it has been for these last three years.. it's never been down because no matter what the economic conditions- the population continues to increase rapidly- demanding increase for new space.. so i don't know- either there will soon be an explosion in construction- or it's the end of the world or something..


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Sun, Sep 4, 2011 at 5:00:59 PM | historic construction slow-down

#28

koolair


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The population factor is just one aspect of construction.  There are

a bunch of other issues like the fraudulent mortage backed security

instruments that are still traded in the "free market".  In Canada,

there is the CMHC (Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation)

who, like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, certify mortgages AAA status

without any insight as to the solvency of the borrowers.  They triple

A these mortages in order to make them "certified for trade".  If

you research this issue alone, you will see there are so many other

reasons why the standard modality of construction tendering simply

do not apply in this particular market environment.  When you have

an artificial shortage of dwelling spaces available on the market, it

means that when that perceived supply is exhausted, more will

appear because in reality, right now, they are hidden from the

market because the big 6 commercial banks are not making them

"visible".  If they did, the prices for real estate (commercial and

residential) would collapse over-night. 

 

This is why I say if you want to understand the construction industry,

just head over to those guys I mentioned a couple posts back: 

Alex Jones to hear about the problems, George Gordon to hear

about the solutions.  I was no economic expert, and I'd rather not

be, to be honest...those "experts" haven't got a clue!  I am an

independent researcher working in collaboration with a multi-faceted

community of researchers and we are quite aware of the reality

we face today.  What the general public is being told is a *JOKE*.

 

The long and the short of it is, we are headed into a hyper-inflationary

depression.  Sorry if that scares you...it should.  But I'm not trying to

be negative....it's better to know what's coming round the bend and to

prepare for it.  I believe the better construction opportunities lie in

the field of small family farm layouts including house, septic tank,

sanitary and storm systems, small scale mechanical / electrical systems,

simple architectural systems, then multiply this out for people who

are awake, have the means to pay for this stuff, and have something

of value to impart onto you in terms of contacts.

 

Peace,

 

Joe


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Sun, Sep 4, 2011 at 6:42:31 PM | historic construction slow-down

#29

vector25



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koolair- okay but you are leaving out the forest in all those economic trees you mention.. the USA has been though all kinds of extreme economic situations in the last 75 years and NEVER have new building permits been down like they've been down for the last three or so years- not even close.. THIS is a horse of a different color..


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Mon, Sep 5, 2011 at 2:50:24 AM | koolair

#30

vector25



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Quoting koolair from 2011-09-04 12:00:59

 "I believe the better construction opportunities lie in

the field of small family farm layouts including house, ..."

 

you mean like the aging digital entrepreneurs might build a house someday?

that's what i'm waiting for..

 

____________________________

Am I a black hole of my own experience?

Where nothing excapes me because I can only see things

from my own perspective?

And how much of what I experience am I making up as I go?

 

"Reality is merely an illusion"-- Albert Einstein

 



Edited on: Sun, Sep 4, 2011 at 9:53:08 PM

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